Will AAP entry on national scene hurt BJP? No. Quite the contrary.

When AAP emerged on the political scene by winning 28 seats in Delhi Assembly elections, Congress did harbor the hope that this new outfit could be able to stop the march of Modi towards a majority or near majority in parliamentary elections.  Having not much to show for its 10 years, lacking strategy or credible leadership, it banked upon the ability of AAP to cut into BJP votes & alter the numbers in 16th Lok Sabha, laying the path for a secular coalition.

The reasoning was simple. Both Modi & Kejriwal were a challenge to the established order, being outsiders to the cosy political club of Delhi. Importantly, both had attracted the same segment of voters. This section of voters, frustrated with corruption, lack of governance, probity & accountability in public life was willing for change & looking forward to it. The cries of Kejriwal for Delhi CM & Modi for PM further confirmed this prognosis.

Congress strategy to let AAP hog the limelight and let itself be projected as an alternative to BJP suited to a ‘T’. If Kejriwal could dent the urban, aspirational, rising middle class voter base, it would not only restrict BJP below the critical number of 200 but also help Congress & secular allies with few more seats & make it a stake holder in next coalition government.

Hence, Rahul Gandhi became invisible for a period of three weeks in December, UPA leaders & ministers began defending AAP, pliable journalists began focusing on AAP exploits.

But the events during the 49 day reign in Delhi changed all that. In this month and a half, AAP almost lost its most vocal voter support, middle class.

One of the important segment, which made AAP a force to reckon with in Delhi was middle class. Middle class is aspirational, has tasted the extra incomes from the GDP growth in last fifteen years. It has sons & daughters who have employed / dream to be employed in the new sectors of economy and are not averse to big industrial houses as well as MNCs. They are not enthused by someone taking pot shots at Ambani, they would rather prefer their son / daughter to be working for Reliance than see Mukesh see behind bars.

This section also believes that it is patriotic. Though the patriotism may be limited to watching Republic Day parade & putting a Rs. 10 flag on the car dashboard / bike handle, it cannot connect with someone who threatens to disrupt a national festival like Republic Day.

Middle class has also seen that the stability pays & instability hurts. Any dharna, agitation does arouse the momentary revolutionary instinct in them but within a short time, the reality of life takes over. Economic considerations have become more important than empty ideals.

And this class is growing, recent studies assess it to be close to 17 crores across India.

When this section realized that AAP stands for a socialist, freebie based model which hurts development & thus economy & job creation, with instability thrown in while disrespecting it’s symbolic patriotism, it began developing cold feet on supporting AAP.

On the other hand, the urban poor, the daily wage earner, the lower of lower middle class, making ends meet with difficulty, going through the daily grind of life, affected by inflation, not yet been touched by or realized the benefit of economic development to develop aspirations, suddenly found a leader who was seen reducing his cost of living, easing his burden, making life less of a grind. Cash in hand is always better than a promise of future development.  The loss of middle class was more than covered by this class and the support base of AAP remained intact. Incidentally, this is the section of populace has been a traditional Congress voter and more likely to be influenced by a Food Security Bill.

Two more segments which have a bearing on subject under discussion are Dalits & Muslims. In Delhi assembly election, AAP took away major share of Dalit vote from BSP which was reduced to 5% from its earlier figure of 14.5% in 2008. Similarly, young Muslims voted for AAP in large numbers while their elders voted for Congress as they have been doing for decades.

It is only the 20 something, social media savvy, mostly unemployed youth who remains the common support base between BJP & AAP. This crowd is torn between the capitalist dreams shown by Modi & socialist ideals espoused by Kejriwal, a befuddling mix.  As someone (Though credit is given to Churchil) said long back.  “Any man who is not a socialist at age 20 has no heart. Any man who is still a socialist at age 40 has no head.”  In big cities, this group is divided almost equally between AAP & BJP whereas in B & C class towns, deprived of facilities their metro counterparts enjoy and being more aspirational, tend to lean towards BJP.

It is possible to contend that while the overall acceptability  for AAP as a political alternative is increasing, more so with the resignation of Arvind Kejriwal as Delhi Chief Minister, the profile of new voters it attracts has been changing over last two months. The middle class is moved away, more urban poor is coming in, in droves to support AAP. On Dalit & Muslim vote, it hopes that the what happened in Delhi could be repeated elsewhere, especially UP and there is no reason to doubt that optimism. Consequently, majority of new AAP supporters are those who were more likely to vote for Congress, BSP or SP two months back.

In short, while Congress thought AAP would cut into middle class votes in urban centres and help it remain relevant in the next Lok Sabha, the voter alignments took a Kejriwal type u-turn and it is the loyal voter of Congress or its secular allies who end up in the lap of AAP! The strategy has turned turtle.

While a state wise analysis would need to be done to accurately assess the overall impact of AAP on configuration of 16th Lok Sabha, a national perspective indicates that AAP would end up damaging the secular half of the political alignment and not the BJP as hoped by Congress.