Bechara's of the world triumph - always; Why bypolls went the way they did.
Most of us would have heard or read this story
before but its relevance to the current situation makes a retelling necessary.
A sword smith came to the King’s durbar (any
King, let’s be secular) and declared that he had the world’s best sword. It was
so good & sharp that it could pierce any shield, repeat any shield in the
world. The claim was tested on the few
shields available and when found to be true, the King became happy, and as
usually happens in such stories, gave a lot of gold and other jewels to the
smith and sent him off.
A year or two later, the smith came to the
King’s court again, this time brandishing a shield which, he claimed, no sword
in the world could pierce. The people were simple in those days and he was
believed. The King was about to be relieved
of some more gold and gems but then, one smart Ram Singh remembered the sword
that the smith had sold earlier. He got up and reminded the king of the
impossibility of both claims being true and asked the smith to test his earlier
claim against the current one.
The smith pleaded innocence to begin with but shortly
realized he had tried to be too clever by half and caught in the act, appealed
for mercy. The King, as they usually did in those times, ordered for his
beheading.
Okay! Not beheading, to be politically correct,
say, execution. Also a disclaimer, “Any association of the above story with a
activist turned politician of Delhi is unintended.”
When it comes to assessing the results of
bypolls held in August – September 2014 and comparing with justifications
expounded for May 2014 victory by BJP, Indian media is in the same situation.
Sometimes it ties itself in knots in it’s attempts to explain as to how a voter
who wanted development in May voted for harbingers of darker days just three
months later. Other times it is at loss to explain as to how the voter which
was remarkably communal to vote BJP in May turned suddenly coy or secular four
months later.
Election analysis is not a simple 2+2=4
exercise. An analyst would be willing to give an arm and a
But the media would try to dumb it down to more
convenient equations of caste and religion, incumbency or anti incumbency and
sometimes even deriding the thought that some people would have voted on purely
economic or aspirational considerations. Since it is difficult to believe that media
does not understand the complex interaction of all these pulls which tug at the
voters mind, it would be safe to conclude that it considers us, the public, the
viewer and the reader unworthy of understanding a detailed explanation or
analysis of the election results. Like we, the right wingers sometimes believe
about the imbecility of Bengalis and Tamils, just because they don’t vote for
BJP!
Now, permit me to add another ingredient to the
concoction.
The concept of Bechara in Indian politics is
ages old, but not explained or exploited to its potential. The word Bechara has
many translations in English; few of them being poor, wretch, destitute, or a
victim. None of them, individually do justice to the word, though, a combination
of all these translations would be closer to the real meaning.
But, an anecdote first.
It was just after 2004 assembly elections that
our newly elected MLA from Badshahpur, Gurgaon came to our society to thank us
for voting for him and reminisced about his journey from nomination to victory.
Chaubisi was my first hurdle. I knew that the
moment Chaubisi accepts my candidature, I would win in Badshahpur. During the
discussions in the Chaubisi panchayat, the pradhan of my village pointed to me
and said, “Iska kya karna hai. Bechara kab se khada hai (What is to be done to
him? The poor guy is standing since long.”
That moment I knew I would become an MLA. My
political guru had told me long back that one’s electoral chances depended more
on been called a ‘bechara’ than anything else. He was right. Chaubisi called me
a ‘bechara’ and here I am.
* Chaubisi is a conglomeration of 24 village
panchayats (sometimes more, sometimes less) which works as a community local
court, also commonly called Khap.
The concept of ‘bechara’ is different from the
sympathy wave. A sympathy wave is a one time event, needs a big, momentous upheaval
and is mostly result of some assassination or at least an untimely death. On
the other hand, bechara is a more like a victimization index which keeps going
up or down continuously, like the price of a share on BSE. Higher the
victimization index, better the chances of winning.
Let’s apply this concept to Uttar Pradesh and
compare the situations during Parliamentary elections conducted in May 14 and
bypolls held in Sept 14.
In the
run-up to Parliamentary elections, UP is governed by Samajwadi Party, perceived
as an outfit which openly favors Muslims. In the Mujaffarnagar riots, cases are
filed against Hindutva leaders but the Muslim offenders are taken to Lucknow in
a government plane. UP team is led by Amit Shah who has been harassed by CBI in
the case of encounter of Ishrat Jehan who is popularly believed to be a
terrorist accomplice. The campaign is led by Narendra Modi who has been vilified
for a period of 12 years for a riot which could have passed off quietly in UP
or Bihar or Assam. In short, BJP and its leaders are seen as victims of an
oppressive pseudo secular dispensation at centre as well as state. As a result of all of this, the index of
victimization or ‘becharahood’ is in favor of BJP and its leaders.
Results are
for everyone to see.
By the time by-elections happened, BJP leaders,
Yogi Adiyanath, Sakshi Maharaj and others have adopted strident positions and
are attacking the state governments on daily basis. Mujaffarnagar riot accused
are out and trying to conduct Aartis in their respective constituencies. The
victims of oppression have become aggressors expounding the concept to Love
Jehad while the poor young CM with his back to the wall was trying to fight off
the Hindutva wolves. The changed optics shifted the index of victimhood towards
the poor CM called Akhilesh Yadav.
And the result is for everyone to see.
This hypothesis acquits itself equally well on
the Bihar bypolls. When the blasts were happening near the rally stage and
Nitish was seen as a traitor who had wrecked a 17 year old alliance, BJP wore
the victim’s crown. When Nitish had been trounced, BJP became too strong, the
victim had to be someone who had suffered. And the crown found Laloo as the
natural successor.
What is to be remembered is that the victimhood
is just one of the factors, sometimes dominant, sometimes not, but always has
the power to affect an electoral verdict.
Playing victim is an established political tool. There
are political outfits who have converted the art of playing victimhood into a
political ploy. Remember, “Main to Chhota Aadmi hoon’? Everytime someone would
slap leaders of this dispensation, their collection from donation would take a
jump. Eveytime the outfit received a setback, the donation graph would look like an
ECG during a heart attack.
I hope that someday, a psephologist succeeds in
converting this perceived victimhood into an index or number which can be
measured and used in electoral calculations.
By the way, victimhood index of Uddhav Thakre, as on date, is very low. I have no calculation to support this, it is only a hunch.
Follow me at @maheshjagga on twitter.
