What went wrong for AAP - A letter to Arvind Kejriwal
Dear Mr
Arvind Kejriwal,
At the
outset, my sympathies for the unkind hand dealt to you in the Parliamentary
election results. Kindly do not get disappointed by these. We Indians have a
habit of leaving incomplete loops even when the verdict seems to be conclusive.
We never finish off anyone completely, always leaving a door open for the vanquished
to claim his or her self respect and a chance to bounce back into the
reckoning. Gain of 4 seats in Punjab is the door which the populace has left
open, for you.
It is easy
to understand your disappointment, though. Not even a single seat in Delhi
which was supposed to be your pocket borough. In Haryana, where AAP was
planning to fight assembly elections, even dreaming, rather salivating, of forming
state government, all candidates finishing 4th to 6th with
less than 4% vote share! Even Yogendra Yadav who had begun treating himself as
Chanakya of Indian politics, came fourth in Gurgaon which happens to be a part
of NCR, centre of Anna’s anti corruption movement, progenitor of AAP( in case
you have forgotten), getting only 80000 votes, despite changing his name to
Salim, though temporarily, and trying to scare voters about Modi becoming PM.
Even in Mumbai,
where you were expecting a seat or two, none of the candidate could finish in first
three places. All of them lost their deposits as did those 400 odd poor souls
who believed that AAP was the quickest way to political riches. You may not
feel bad about the 1.05 Cr. Lost to Election Commission on deposits forfeited
as it is small change for a party which can spend over 6 Crs with the specific purpose
of losing to Narendra Modi in Varanasi but the fact that AAP created a record
in terms of maximum deposit forfeitures must rankle a bit.
But, cheer
up, I am presenting a hypothesis (proven one, at that) and a future plan for expansion
of AAP, sans the interrelated disappointments while maximizing the return on
investment for those who donate money to AAP.
Let me
explain.
Typically,
AAP needs specific & amenable conditions to sprout & grow. First
requirement is a bipolar polity, second, an ineffective & unpopular
government, even better if people are full of resentment for the government and
thirdly a defunct opposition. Needless to say all conditions are mandatory for
AAP to take root and prosper.
Delhi in
2013 was in same situation. Sheila government was facing an anti incumbency due
to its corruption and lack of connect with populace. Opposition BJP had more
national leaders than MLAs in assembly. The government had been winning
elections not due to its performance but mainly because opposition was seen as
an even worse alternative. Voters were between a rock and a hard place with no reprieve
from either. You benefitted from the situation and got an unexpected windfall.
Though you got
too greedy but more about it later.
Punjab was in
a similar situation when Parliamentary elections were held. People were unhappy
with father son government of Akali Dal but opposition was torn between two
equally useless leaders, one disinterested but arrogant, erstwhile king and other,
a dynasty sycophant. The ground was as ready as it could ever be, you would
have reaped mangoes even by sowing cactus. And you did!
The theory
acquits itself well on UP results too. Firstly, the bipolar condition did not
exist in the fragmented polity of UP, more the options available, less the
chances of a voter feeling that he or she has no option and secondly, an option,
a real option, made itself available.
What I am
getting at is that AAP is the last resort, the ultimate option for the
optionless. As long as even one option remains, even slightly acceptable, AAP
would not get any public support. In other words, voter would not vote for you except
as a last resort, with a gesture of wasting his vote, in a way saying that it
is better than not voting. In short, AAP is the negative NOTA.
You may or may
not like this assessment, you may take is as compliment or condemnation, it
does not matter. You would know that there is no permanent accolade or invective
in politics. You may love tomorrow what you hate today. But why am I telling
you about it, you are the shining example of such admirable flippancy, so much
so that an analyst cannot even begin to fathom your legendary skills.
Hence, for future
plans of AAP, you should be looking at those states where people are hopeless
enough to vote for you. Delhi is out of question in the current situation,
Haryana too is not suitable while Maharashtra already has too many options.
Attempting AAP revival in these states would be akin to sowing strawberry in
Thar desert. It would only waste seed money (deposit amounts if you like).
Only state
in India which seemed like moving in the direction where it would be ripe
enough for you to benefit was West Bengal, but suddenly they seem to have an
option. Same goes for Odisha. What you need is to hope that while the ruling
governments incur incumbency and fuel resentment, their opposition keeps
sleeping.
If you
follow the above model, you would not have to hunt with the hound and run with
the hare, as you did when accepting the Congress support for your government in
Delhi. You would not need to look London and talk Tokyo as you had to when you
were fighting corruption and abusing Narendra Modi every day. You would not
need to make under the table deals with TV anchors & journos to get
coverage as you were forced to do earlier. You would not need to swallow words
when asked about your kid glove treatment for the dynasty. You won’t have to
make AAP a refuse collection ground which you did to attract VIP candidates. You
would not need to proclaim to be fighting secularism when gathering votes by
scaring people in the name of Allah, or God. Imagine what all you would not need to do!
And this
time, dear Mr. Kejriwal, when you get the opportunity, do not resign citing
some fake issue while claiming to have sacrificed your government on
principles. You may not have noticed but self proclaimed sacrifice has suddenly
become an untrustworthy word.
Best of
luck.
An honest Indian
